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last week in brexit 14/11/16

14/11/2016

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Almost nothing to do with Brexit happened last week. The media was pretty pre-occupied with Donald Trump winning the US election, and to be honest, there just isn't much else to talk about. Speaking on the phone with Theresa May, Trump made it clear that the UK-US  relationship was very important and that the UK is a "very, very special place" to him. The interesting part of this development will be how Trump approaches maintaining this relationship with a post-Brexit Britain, but as with all things Trump, nobody can be certain. 

One thing is clear, Trump is a Brexit fan, and he sees Britain as a trailblazer of sorts in the same anti-elitist revolution he purports to represent. The Obama administration had previously warned that Britain would be "at the back of the queue" when it comes to new trade deals, with Trump in power however, we might have jumped to the front. Trump's view on trade is generally protectionist though, certainly compared to the massively pro-free-trade stance taken by our Government post-referendum, and so things should prove interesting. 

On home turf, the only real developments of note were that the Lib Dems and a group of other MPs said that they would block Article 50 unless promised a second referendum on the exit terms; the government started to toy with the idea that A50 could be revoked; and a group of ministers caught on to the idea that we need a transitional arrangement based upon something like the EEA agreement.

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Richard North has some good analysis of the week's events over on his blog. North broke down the suggestion that A50 could be revoked from a legal point of view, finding no clear answers, but suggesting that if A50 is deemed revocable the Government may win its appeal over the A50 High Court ruling. If the government presses this issue all the way though, it may have to seek the advice of the European Court of Justice, which is very likely to make a pre-March 2017 invocation unlikely. North also looks at the call from ministers for a transitional arrangement, something which North and many others have been saying for a long time. Chairman of RBS Sir Howard Davies echoed these calls, suggesting that banks would not wait around to see the final position, and that a transitional period must be promised. 

alex.davies@gmchamber.co.uk

@GMCC_Alex
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