The main event last week was the government's Supreme Court appeal over the Article 50 (A50) case. After 4 days of intense argument the case came to a close with a reminder from the Court that it will not "overturn the result of the EU referendum" and that the case focused on "the process by which that result can lawfully be brought into effect".  Now, we have to wait for the decision of the Supreme Court over whether a parliamentay vote to invoke A50 is required, and to see if the case will go as far as the European Court of Justice, something which could slow Brexit down.

As the SC Judges heard the arguments last Wednesday, a parliamentary vote was held on whether MPs would "respect" the will of the people and back the government's decision to invoke A50 before the end of Match next year, with 461 MPs supporting the motion and 89 against. Whilst the vote was non-binding meaning it can have no effect on the SC case, it is politically important, forcing MPs to show their hand early and reducing the chances of a A50-blocking result when the time to invoke A50 arrives.

The new legal case headed by QC Jolyon Maugham concerning the revocability of A50 opened up for crowdfunding on Friday and secured its £70k target within just 48 hours. This means that the case will now go to the Irish High Court for consideration, and it is predicted that this case may also end up going to the ECJ as the Irish HC may not wish to spend too much time on it. Any unexpected rulings in this case could have a significant effect on the Brexit process, potentially meaning that the government could reject any deal achieved in the negotiations and sort-of call the whole thing off. I'm not sure what to make of this one, could be something, could be nothing, but definitely one to watch out for before March.

The top EU Brexit negotiators have outlined a three-tier approach to negotiations, whereby a final deal can only be negotiated after issues requiring immediate attention like border controls and EU payments, and a transitionary arrangement have been agreed. This is in contrast to David Davis' parallel negotiation approach, where everything is negotiated at once. Guy Verhofstadt has also revealed his plan to offer an individual opt-in on EU citizenship to Brits post-Brexit, an idea which has apparantly now been fast-tracked, and should increase pressure on Theresa May to outline a plan on the future rights of EU citizens in the UK.

As the anti-single market sentiment builds, moves towards an EEA-style arrangement - once championed by many on the Leave side, is now being hailed by many as basically the same as EU membership and by others as an outright betrayal. There are lots of myths surrounding the EEA/EFTA option which makes it seem a lot more like EU membership than it really is, and suggest that it would mean "all EU rules but with no say". Here, Phil Hendron doesn't pull any punches in busting them all over again.

Historian Niall Ferguson supported remain before the referendum, but has now revealed that he was wrong for all the wrong reasons. Read his interesting confession here.

Finally, there is much confusion over what exactly the customs union is and the what the implications of leaving it are at the moment, and I confess to getting some of it wrong myself. The media and many politicians however, continue to make the same mistakes. Richard North's monograph on the subject is a great place to start for those who are understandably still a bit unsure.

alex.davies@gmchamber.co.uk

@GMCC_Alex

Last week, David Davies and Phillip Hammond both signalled that we might continue to pay into the EU budget in return for single market access, meaning we now also have "grey Brexit" in the mix; anti-Brexit and pro-single market Liberal Democrat Sarah Olney beat Zac Goldsmith in the Richmond Park byelection, taking the total number of Lib Dem MPs up to 9; the ONS revealed that EU migration has hit record levels in the last year, despite net migration being pretty flat overall; Italians voted against their Prime Minister Matteo Renzi in a referendum on constitutional change, leading to Renzi stepping down whilst anti-Eurozone candidates took a big step closer to government; Far-right candidate Norbert Hofer lost the Austrian presidential election to ex-Green leader Alexander Van der Bellen; and an internal memo demanding an end to internal government leaks was leaked immediately.

The Italian referendum result is significant because it vastly increases the chances of the EU's first anti-single currency party taking government, potentially increasing the pressure on the rest of the Eurozone and the EU project as a whole. It will also heap pressure on Italy's struggling banking system, where there is already talk of a state bailout having a domino effect on Italy's fragile finances. In relation to Brexit, this will be another source of pressure on the EU and the Euro, potentially increasing the EU's need to make Brexit a smooth process. Putting barriers between London - in effect the centre of the EU's financial system - and the rest of the EU just became a more risky proposition. The EU will be thankful that the Austrian election went the way it did - a lance to another source of anti-EU and anti-immigration pressure.

A quick comment on the migration figures. First of all, the data captures the year up to June 2016, so the referendum result has no bearing on these figures. The media understandably focussed on the fact that EU-migration has hit record levels, but some interesting points were lost. Net migration was actually only 1000 higher than the previous year, and the margin of error on these figures is 40,000. Overall there has been no significant change in levels, as non-EU migration has decreased whilst EU migration has increased. Furthermore, of the 284,000 EU citizens that came to the UK, 77,000 were returning Brits. 

Today, the governments appeal of the A50 ruling goes to the supreme court. The government is not expected to win, but the case has the possibility of slowing down the Brexit process and potentially pushing back A50 if things get sticky. Full Fact have a good break down of what is going on here. If you are a masochist or a lawyer with time to kill the whole thing can be watched here. Updates on this next week.

Finally, Liam Fox today put out a statement following his travels to the WTO last week. In it, he outlines that the process of carrying over the EU's schedules into new British ones in conjunction with the WTO membership has begun. A sign that the necessary technical aspects of Brexit are finally getting underway. Richard North has a monograph on the complex matter and what it all means.

A good piece from The University of Cambridge breaks down the A127 argument, and concludes that it cannot be a backdoor for Britain to stay in the single Market. Steve Peers tackles the same issue on his law blog, providing a great explanation of the EEA, EFTA and tho possible routes for contnued single market membership post-Brexit. This piece from Anamika Patel at the Centre for policy studies looks at NAFTA, EFTA and the customs union when considering possible post-Brexit arrangements that Britain could take advantage of. Finally Pete North has a piece called "Yes the Single Market sucks. Here's why we should stay in", Pete argues that there is no need for us to go through the pain of departing from the single market right now because it is slipping out of the EU's control anyway.
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alex.davies@gmchamber.co.uk

​@GMCC_Alex